DNV’s annual Energy Transition Outlook presents the results from our independent model of the world’s energy system. It covers the period through to 2050 and forecasts the energy mix, supply and demand globally and in 10 world regions.The sixth edition of the 2022 Energy Transformation Outlook released by DNV shows that high attention to energy security and rising energy costs have increased the difference in decarbonization speed between Europe and other regions of the world. Europe is regarded as the leader of energy transformation. To ensure its energy independence, Europe will double its investment in renewable energy and energy efficiency. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will lead to a sharp decrease in the use of natural gas in Europe. By 2050, natural gas can only meet 10% of Europe’s energy demand, compared with 25% at present. DNV’s forecast of natural gas consumption in Europe in 2050 this year will only account for about half of the previous year’s forecast.

By 2050, the proportion of non fossil energy in the global energy structure will be slightly higher than 50% for the first time. This is mainly due to the growth of green power.

In the next three decades, the power generation will more than double, and the proportion of electricity in the global energy structure will increase from 19% to 38%.

In most cases, solar photovoltaic and wind energy are the cheapest forms of electricity. It is estimated that they will increase by 20 times and 10 times respectively by 2050, and their proportion in the power generation structure will reach 38% and 31% respectively.

In the next ten years, the expenditure on renewable energy will double, reaching more than 1.4 trillion US dollars per year. By 2030, the grid expenditure may exceed 1 trillion US dollars per year.

Concerns about energy security have renewed people’s interest in nuclear power. This year’s forecast reflects a modest growth in nuclear power, which will increase by 13% by 2050. However, by 2050, the share of nuclear power in the power structure will drop from 10% to 5%.

According to the report, despite the short-term growth of coal consumption, this does not change the trend that it is rapidly withdrawing from the energy structure after reaching its peak in 2014. Oil has been approaching a stable period for many years, and will fall back rapidly after 2030. Affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the global natural gas consumption will be lower than previously predicted. According to the prediction before the conflict, natural gas will become the largest single energy source in the world by the end of the 1920s, but now this time point will be postponed to 2048.

Source: DNV