2023 National Power Supply and Demand Situation Analysis and Prediction Report-Wind power development and forecast
The Report pointed out that in 2023, China’s economic operation is expected to rebound in general, and the growth rate of electricity consumption demand is expected to be higher than that in 2022. The report predicts that by the end of 2023, the country’s installed power generation capacity will be about 2.81 billion kilowatts, including 1.48 billion kilowatts of non-fossil energy power generation, accounting for 52.5% of the total installed capacity. Hydropower is 420 million kilowatts, grid-connected wind power is 430 million kilowatts, grid-connected solar power is 490 million kilowatts, nuclear power is 58.46 million kilowatts, and biomass power is about 45 million kilowatts. The installed scale of solar power and wind power will exceed the installed scale of hydropower for the first time in 2023.
By the end of 2022, the installed capacity of nationwide full-caliber power generation was 2.56 billion kilowatts, up 7.8% year on year. From the perspective of investment by type, growth rate of installed power generation and structural changes, the green and low-carbon transformation of the power industry has achieved remarkable results.
First, the installed capacity of non-fossil energy power generation accounts for nearly 50% of the total installed capacity. In 2022, the country’s new installed power generation capacity will reach 200 million kilowatts, including 160 million kilowatts of new non-fossil energy power generation capacity. The total installed power generation capacity newly put into operation and the installed power generation capacity of non-fossil energy power generation will reach a record high. By the end of 2022, the installed capacity of nationwide full-caliber power generation was 2.56 billion kilowatts, including 1.27 billion kilowatts of non-fossil energy power generation, up 13.8% year on year, accounting for 49.6% of the total installed capacity, up 2.6 percentage points year on year, and electricity continued the trend of green and low-carbon transformation. In terms of classification, hydropower is 410 million kilowatts, of which pumped storage is 45.79 million kilowatts; 55.53 million kilowatts of nuclear power; The grid-connected wind power is 365 million kilowatts, including 335 million kilowatts of onshore wind power and 30.46 million kilowatts of offshore wind power; Grid-connected solar power generation 390 million kilowatts; Thermal power is 1.33 billion kilowatts, of which coal power accounts for 43.8% of the total installed power generation capacity.
Second, the full-caliber non-fossil energy power generation increased by 8.7% year on year, and the coal power generation accounted for nearly 60% of the total full-caliber power generation. In 2022, the power generation of industrial enterprises above designated size nationwide will reach 8.39 trillion kWh, up 2.2% year on year. Among them, the power generation of thermal power, hydropower and nuclear power of industrial enterprises above designated size will increase by 0.9%, 1.0% and 2.5% year on year respectively. In 2022, the total capacity of grid-connected wind power and solar power generation increased by 16.3% and 30.8% respectively year on year. The full-caliber non-fossil energy power generation increased by 8.7% year on year, accounting for 36.2% of the total power generation, up 1.7 percentage points year on year. Full-caliber coal power generation increased by 0.7% year on year, accounting for 58.4% of the total power generation, down 1.7 percentage points year on year. Coal power is still the main power supply in China. In the third quarter when the incoming water was obviously dry, the full-caliber coal-fired power generation increased by 9.2% year on year, which made up for the decline of hydropower output and gave full play to the role of coal power supply guarantee.
Third, the utilization hours of solar power generation equipment increased by 56 hours year on year, and the utilization hours of wind power, thermal power, nuclear power and hydropower decreased by 9, 65, 186 and 194 hours year on year respectively. In 2022, the utilization hours of power generation equipment in power plants of 6000 kW and above nationwide will be 3687 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 125 hours. From the perspective of classification, 3412 hours of hydropower is the lowest since 2014, with a year-on-year decrease of 194 hours. Nuclear power has 7616 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 186 hours. The grid-connected wind power was 2221 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 9 hours. Grid-connected solar power generation lasted 1337 hours, up 56 hours year on year. 4379 hours of thermal power, 65 hours lower than the previous year; Among them, coal power consumption was 4594 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 8 hours; Gas and electricity were 2429 hours, a year-on-year decrease of 258 hours.
Fourth, the electricity transmission across regions increased by 6.3% year-on-year, and the electricity transmission across provinces increased by 4.3% year-on-year. In 2022, 38967 kilometers of 220 kV and above transmission lines will be added nationwide, with a year-on-year increase of 6814 kilometers; The capacity (AC) of new 220 kV and above substation equipment nationwide is 258.39 million KVA, with a year-on-year increase of 15.41 million KVA. In 2022, the country completed 765.4 billion kilowatt-hours of trans-regional transmission, an increase of 6.3% year on year. The high temperature weather in August led to the shortage of power supply in East China, Central China and other regions, and the power grid increased its trans-regional power support. The nationwide trans-regional transmission of electricity in that month increased by 17.3% year on year. In 2022, the country will complete the trans-provincial transmission of 1.77 trillion kilowatt-hours, up 4.3% year on year; Among them, the power supply in some provinces was tight in December, and the nationwide trans-provincial transmission of electricity in that month increased by 19.6% year on year.
Source: Beijixing Offshorewind